Caterpillar, Inc.
CAT NYSECaterpillar looks about 60% overvalued against its cash-flow value. Its growth outlook scores strong; the balance sheet is solid.
At a glance
tap a tile to dig inOtto's verdict
the tiles above, in a line each- Value Looks ~60% overvalued against Otto's cash-flow estimate.
- Health 14 of 19 health checks pass.
- Growth Revenue trend ≈ +6%/yr (extended trend, not a forecast).
- Street Analysts lean buy · avg target +12% from here.
- Dividend Pays a dividend — yields 0.75%.
Not investment advice — Otto just crunches numbers.
Price trend
+313.7% over five years · S&P 500 +71.3%
What think
The market's move: +313.7% over the past year
Trading 69% up its 52-week range. Price is the market's live vote — not advice.
Analyst consensus: Buy · 26 analysts
Average 12-month target $970.71 — +12.2% vs today.
Yahoo Finance's analyst aggregate. Sentiment, not advice.
Insiders: 0 buys · 0 sales in recent filings
Open-market trades from SEC Form 4. Sales are often pre-planned (10b5-1); buys tend to say more. Sentiment, not advice.
InvestRight readers: 0 watching
This site's own activity — not a broad measure. Sentiment, not advice.
The snowflake
checks passed on each axis- Value 0/2 checks
- Future 3/3 checks
- Past 3/3 checks
- Health 4/5 checks
- Dividend 4/6 checks
What does this show?
Five quick health scores — Value, Future, Past, Health and Dividend — each 0–100%. A bigger, more even shape means a stock that scores well across the board; a spiky one is strong on some axes and weak on others.
Learn more on Investopedia →Fair value
our estimate · not analyst forecast60% above our estimate — the price sits over what our numbers support.
How we got there
A 2-stage discounted-cash-flow on free cash flow: grow it at the capped historical trend for five years, fade to a 2.5% long-run rate, discount everything at 9.0%. It's a transparent estimate from past numbers, not a licensed forecast — treat it as one lens, not truth.
What does this show?
Our estimate of what one share is worth based on the cash the business is expected to generate (a discounted-cash-flow model), next to today's price. Below fair value hints undervalued, above hints expensive — it's an estimate, not a guarantee.
Learn more on Investopedia →Health checks
19 checks run on free data- ⚠ Trading below our fair-value estimate -60% vs our DCF estimate
- ⚠ Debt is under 40% of equity debt/equity 231%
- ⚠ More than 20% below fair value -60% margin of safety
- ⚠ Yield beats the market yield 0.68% vs market ~1.5%
- ⚠ Yield in the top quartile of payers yield 0.68% vs 4.76% cut among the 18 payers Otto tracks
- ✓ Debt/equity falling over time long-term debt/equity 144.0% vs 172.5%
Show all 19 checks by axis
Value 0/2 passed
- ⚠ Trading below our fair-value estimate -60% vs our DCF estimate
- – P/B below industry industry P/B not on the free feed
- – P/E below industry industry P/E not on the free feed
- – P/E below peer average peer P/Es land after the next refresh
- – P/S sane vs its own history needs multi-year P/S (Tier B)
- ⚠ More than 20% below fair value -60% margin of safety
Future 3/3 passed
- ✓ Earnings trending up latest above earliest
- – Growth beats the industry industry growth not on the free feed
- – Earnings growth beats the market
- ✓ Revenue trending up 6.4%/yr over 9yr
- ✓ Return on equity improving ROE 41.7% vs -0.4% 9yr ago
Past 3/3 passed
- ✓ Earnings grew over the period -59.0M → 8.9B
- – High-quality earnings (few one-offs) one-off detection deferred — needs statement detail
- – Growth accelerating vs its average n/a (loss years)
- ✓ Revenue higher than five years ago 38.5B → 67.6B
- ✓ Return on equity above 20% ROE 51.3%
Health 4/5 passed
- ✓ Debt/equity falling over time long-term debt/equity 144.0% vs 172.5%
- ⚠ Debt is under 40% of equity debt/equity 231%
- ✓ Debt well covered by cash flow operating cash flow covers 32.0% of debt
- – Interest comfortably covered by profit
- ✓ Short-term assets cover long-term debt 52.5B vs 40.7B
- ✓ Short-term assets cover short-term bills 52.5B vs 36.6B
Dividend 4/6 passed
- ✓ Dividend covered by earnings and cash flow covered by both earnings and free cash flow
- ✓ Dividend growing over time over 10yr on record
- ✓ No dividend cut in recent years steady over 10yr on record
- ✓ Payout ratio under 75% payout 29.6% of earnings
- ⚠ Yield beats the market yield 0.68% vs market ~1.5%
- ⚠ Yield in the top quartile of payers yield 0.68% vs 4.76% cut among the 18 payers Otto tracks
What does this show?
Pass/fail rules on the company's finances — debt levels, profitability, cash cover and so on. More greens means a sturdier balance sheet; an n/a just means we didn't have that data point.
Learn more on Investopedia →Past performance
10-yr history from SEC EDGAR filingsRevenue
Earnings
Free cash flow
dashed line = what it'd look like growing at our ~9% market-average benchmark, for comparison
What does this show?
How revenue, earnings and free cash flow have grown over the years. Bars rising left-to-right show a growing business; the dashed line is a market-average pace for comparison.
Learn more on Investopedia →Future
trend, not analyst forecastRevenue · extended at 6.4%/yr
Dashed bars just extend the historical trend (capped at ±15%/yr) — the same growth our DCF uses. It's arithmetic on the past, not an analyst forecast; real futures bend.
What does this show?
Solid bars are history; dashed bars simply extend the past growth trend a few years forward — capped so it stays sane. It's a trend line, not an analyst forecast.
Learn more on Investopedia →Dividend
from cash actually paid, not promisesTotal dividends paid · split-proof, unlike per-share history
What does this show?
The share of profit paid back to shareholders as cash. Yield is that cash as a % of the price; the payout gauge shows how much of earnings is paid out (over ~75% can be hard to sustain).
Learn more on Investopedia →Ownership & insiders
from SEC Form 4 filingsNo open-market buys or sells in the recent filings — what's below is mostly awards and option activity.
- Award Wilkins Rayford Jr · Director 211 sh 2026-06-10
- Award Schwab Susan C · Director 211 sh 2026-06-10
- Award Reed Debra L · Director 211 sh 2026-06-10
- Award Marks Judith Fran · Director 211 sh 2026-06-10
- Award Maclennan David · Director 211 sh 2026-06-10
- Award Keene Nazzic S · Director 211 sh 2026-06-10
- Award Johnson Gerald · Director 211 sh 2026-06-10
- Award Fish James C Jr · Director 211 sh 2026-06-10
Insiders must report within two business days. Sales are often pre-planned (10b5-1) rather than a signal — buys tend to say more.
What does this show?
Buys and sells by the company's own directors and officers, from their SEC filings. Insiders sell for many reasons, but clusters of open-market buying can signal confidence.
Learn more on Investopedia →Competitors
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · tap to jumpNo competitors listed for CAT yet — sign in to add the first one.
What does this show?
A few peers in the same business, each with its own mini snowflake, so you can see how this company stacks up rather than judging it in isolation. Anyone signed in can add a missing competitor — it shows for everyone, marked as user-added.
Learn more on Investopedia →In the news
- These Are 5 Of The Best Stocks To Buy Or Watch Now
- Here's What Investors Must Know Ahead of Fastenal's Q2 Earnings
- Caterpillar (CAT) Stock Dips While Market Gains: Key Facts
- These Dividend Paying Stocks Offer Strong Exposure to AI Trends
- AI could cause a huge electricity shortfall in the US, Bank of America says: A closer look
- Is Caterpillar (CAT) Still A Bargain Or Already Fully Priced?
- CAT Stock Heads For Second Weekly Loss: Is Caterpillar's AI Rally Fading?
- 3 Mega-Cap Stocks with Competitive Advantages
My notes
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Hi! I can explain Caterpillar,'s numbers — valuation, health, the dividend, the fair-value gap. What would you like to know?
Otto explains what's on this page — not investment advice.