InvestRight

Alphabet Inc.

GOOGL NasdaqGS

Alphabet looks about 18% expensive.

$361.92 -1.32% today as of 8 Jul, 10:01 PM

The snowflake

checks passed on each axis
Value 33% Future 100% Past 100% Health 83% Dividend 67%
  • Value 1/3 checks
  • Future 4/4 checks
  • Past 4/4 checks
  • Health 5/6 checks
  • Dividend 4/6 checks
What does this show?

Five quick health scores — Value, Future, Past, Health and Dividend — each 0–100%. A bigger, more even shape means a stock that scores well across the board; a spiky one is strong on some axes and weak on others.

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Fair value

our estimate · not analyst forecast

18% above our estimate — the price sits over what our numbers support.

$361.92 price today $296.74 fair value
How we got there

A 2-stage discounted-cash-flow on free cash flow: grow it at the capped historical trend for five years, fade to a 2.5% long-run rate, discount everything at 9.0%. It's a transparent estimate from past numbers, not a licensed forecast — treat it as one lens, not truth.

What does this show?

Our estimate of what one share is worth based on the cash the business is expected to generate (a discounted-cash-flow model), next to today's price. Below fair value hints undervalued, above hints expensive — it's an estimate, not a guarantee.

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Health checks

23 checks run on free data
Show all 23 checks by axis

Value 1/3 passed

  • ⚠ Trading below our fair-value estimate -18% vs our DCF estimate
  • – P/B below industry industry P/B not on the free feed
  • – P/E below industry industry P/E not on the free feed
  • ✓ P/E below peer average P/E 28.0 vs peers 30.2
  • – P/S sane vs its own history needs multi-year P/S (Tier B)
  • ⚠ More than 20% below fair value -18% margin of safety

Future 4/4 passed

  • ✓ Earnings trending up 23.7%/yr over 9yr
  • – Growth beats the industry industry growth not on the free feed
  • ✓ Earnings growth beats the market 23.7%/yr vs market ~9.0%
  • ✓ Revenue trending up 18.1%/yr over 9yr
  • ✓ Return on equity improving ROE 31.8% vs 14.0% 9yr ago

Past 4/4 passed

  • ✓ Earnings grew over the period 19.5B → 132.2B
  • – High-quality earnings (few one-offs) one-off detection deferred — needs statement detail
  • ✓ Growth accelerating vs its average latest 32.0%/yr vs 23.7% average
  • ✓ Revenue higher than five years ago 90.3B → 402.8B
  • ✓ Return on equity above 20% ROE 38.9%

Health 5/6 passed

  • ⚠ Debt/equity falling over time long-term debt/equity 11.2% vs 2.8%
  • ✓ Debt is under 40% of equity debt/equity 20%
  • ✓ Debt well covered by cash flow operating cash flow covers 339.0% of debt
  • ✓ Interest comfortably covered by profit EBIT covers interest 175.3×
  • ✓ Short-term assets cover long-term debt 206.0B vs 77.3B
  • ✓ Short-term assets cover short-term bills 206.0B vs 102.7B

Dividend 4/6 passed

  • ✓ Dividend covered by earnings and cash flow covered by both earnings and free cash flow
  • ✓ Dividend growing over time over 6yr on record
  • ✓ No dividend cut in recent years steady over 6yr on record
  • ✓ Payout ratio under 75% payout 6.4% of earnings
  • ⚠ Yield beats the market yield 0.24% vs market ~1.5%
  • ⚠ Yield in the top quartile of payers yield 0.24% vs 5.05% cut among the 12 payers Otto tracks
What does this show?

Pass/fail rules on the company's finances — debt levels, profitability, cash cover and so on. More greens means a sturdier balance sheet; an n/a just means we didn't have that data point.

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Past performance

10-yr history from SEC EDGAR filings

Revenue

2016 · 90.3B 2025 · 402.8B

Earnings

2016 · 19.5B 2025 · 132.2B

Free cash flow

2016 · 25.8B 2025 · 73.3B

dashed line = what it'd look like growing at our ~9% market-average benchmark, for comparison

What does this show?

How revenue, earnings and free cash flow have grown over the years. Bars rising left-to-right show a growing business; the dashed line is a market-average pace for comparison.

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Future

trend, not analyst forecast

Revenue · extended at 15.0%/yr

2016 · 90.3B 2028 · 612.7B projected

Earnings · extended at 15.0%/yr

2016 · 19.5B 2028 · 201.0B projected

Dashed bars just extend the historical trend (capped at ±15%/yr) — the same growth our DCF uses. It's arithmetic on the past, not an analyst forecast; real futures bend.

What does this show?

Solid bars are history; dashed bars simply extend the past growth trend a few years forward — capped so it stays sane. It's a trend line, not an analyst forecast.

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Dividend

from cash actually paid, not promises
0.24% current yield · market ~1.5%
2 yrs without a cut, on record
Growing over the saved record
paying out 7.6% of earnings 75% comfort line

Total dividends paid · split-proof, unlike per-share history

2024 · 7.4B 2025 · 10.0B
What does this show?

The share of profit paid back to shareholders as cash. Yield is that cash as a % of the price; the payout gauge shows how much of earnings is paid out (over ~75% can be hard to sustain).

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Ownership & insiders

from SEC Form 4 filings

0 open-market buys · 2 sales in the last 10 saved filings

Insiders must report within two business days. Sales are often pre-planned (10b5-1) rather than a signal — buys tend to say more.

What does this show?

Buys and sells by the company's own directors and officers, from their SEC filings. Insiders sell for many reasons, but clusters of open-market buying can signal confidence.

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Competitors

hand-picked peers · tap to jump
MSFT Microsoft Corporation $383.34 -1.2%
META no saved data yet
AAPL Apple Inc. $313.39 +0.6%
AMZN no saved data yet
What does this show?

A few peers in the same business, each with its own mini snowflake, so you can see how this company stacks up rather than judging it in isolation.

Learn more on Investopedia →

In the news

My notes