Microsoft Corporation
MSFT NASDAQMicrosoft Corporation looks about 62% overvalued against its cash-flow value. Its growth outlook scores strong; the balance sheet is solid.
At a glance
tap a tile to dig inOtto's verdict
the tiles above, in a line each- Value Looks ~62% overvalued against Otto's cash-flow estimate.
- Health 18 of 23 health checks pass.
- Growth Revenue trend ≈ +14%/yr (extended trend, not a forecast).
- Street Analysts lean strong buy · avg target +18% from here.
- Dividend Pays a dividend — yields 0.75%.
- Insiders Insiders, last 12 months: 0 buys · 2 sells.
Not investment advice — Otto just crunches numbers.
Price trend
+26.8% over the last month · S&P 500 +3.5%
What think
The market's move: +26.8% over the past year
Trading 66% up its 52-week range. Price is the market's live vote — not advice.
Analyst consensus: Strong Buy · 52 analysts
Average 12-month target $569.45 — +17.8% vs today.
Yahoo Finance's analyst aggregate. Sentiment, not advice.
Insiders: 0 buys · 2 sales in recent filings
Open-market trades from SEC Form 4. Sales are often pre-planned (10b5-1); buys tend to say more. Sentiment, not advice.
InvestRight readers: 0 watching
This site's own activity — not a broad measure. Sentiment, not advice.
The snowflake
checks passed on each axis- Value 0/3 checks
- Future 4/4 checks
- Past 4/4 checks
- Health 6/6 checks
- Dividend 4/6 checks
What does this show?
Five quick health scores — Value, Future, Past, Health and Dividend — each 0–100%. A bigger, more even shape means a stock that scores well across the board; a spiky one is strong on some axes and weak on others.
Learn more on Investopedia →Fair value
our estimate · not analyst forecast62% above our estimate — the price sits over what our numbers support.
How we got there
A 2-stage discounted-cash-flow on free cash flow: grow it at the capped historical trend for five years, fade to a 2.5% long-run rate, discount everything at 9.0%. It's a transparent estimate from past numbers, not a licensed forecast — treat it as one lens, not truth.
What does this show?
Our estimate of what one share is worth based on the cash the business is expected to generate (a discounted-cash-flow model), next to today's price. Below fair value hints undervalued, above hints expensive — it's an estimate, not a guarantee.
Learn more on Investopedia →Health checks
23 checks run on free data- ⚠ Trading below our fair-value estimate -62% vs our DCF estimate
- ⚠ P/E below peer average P/E 27.0 vs peers 25.1
- ⚠ More than 20% below fair value -62% margin of safety
- ⚠ Yield beats the market yield 0.75% vs market ~1.5%
- ⚠ Yield in the top quartile of payers yield 0.75% vs 2.68% cut among the 67 payers Otto tracks
- ✓ Debt/equity falling over time long-term debt/equity 7.0% vs 86.7%
Show all 23 checks by axis
Value 0/3 passed
- ⚠ Trading below our fair-value estimate -62% vs our DCF estimate
- – P/B below industry industry P/B not on the free feed
- – P/E below industry industry P/E not on the free feed
- ⚠ P/E below peer average P/E 27.0 vs peers 25.1
- – P/S sane vs its own history needs multi-year P/S (Tier B)
- ⚠ More than 20% below fair value -62% margin of safety
Future 4/4 passed
- ✓ Earnings trending up 20.2%/yr over 9yr
- – Growth beats the industry industry growth not on the free feed
- ✓ Earnings growth beats the market 20.2%/yr vs market ~9.0%
- ✓ Revenue trending up 14.7%/yr over 9yr
- ✓ Return on equity improving ROE 30.2% vs 29.1% 9yr ago
Past 4/4 passed
- ✓ Earnings grew over the period 25.5B → 133.7B
- – High-quality earnings (few one-offs) one-off detection deferred — needs statement detail
- ✓ Growth accelerating vs its average latest 31.3%/yr vs 20.2% average
- ✓ Revenue higher than five years ago 96.6B → 331.8B
- ✓ Return on equity above 20% ROE 34.0%
Health 6/6 passed
- ✓ Debt/equity falling over time long-term debt/equity 7.0% vs 86.7%
- ✓ Debt is under 40% of equity debt/equity 29%
- ✓ Debt well covered by cash flow operating cash flow covers 454.0% of debt
- ✓ Interest comfortably covered by profit EBIT covers interest 50.9×
- ✓ Short-term assets cover long-term debt 207.7B vs 147.2B
- ✓ Short-term assets cover short-term bills 207.7B vs 168.8B
Dividend 4/6 passed
- ✓ Dividend covered by earnings and cash flow covered by both earnings and free cash flow
- ✓ Dividend growing over time over 10yr on record
- ✓ No dividend cut in recent years steady over 10yr on record
- ✓ Payout ratio under 75% payout 19.8% of earnings
- ⚠ Yield beats the market yield 0.75% vs market ~1.5%
- ⚠ Yield in the top quartile of payers yield 0.75% vs 2.68% cut among the 67 payers Otto tracks
What does this show?
Pass/fail rules on the company's finances — debt levels, profitability, cash cover and so on. More greens means a sturdier balance sheet; an n/a just means we didn't have that data point.
Learn more on Investopedia →Past performance
10-yr history from SEC EDGAR filingsRevenue
Earnings
Free cash flow
dashed line = what it'd look like growing at our ~9% market-average benchmark, for comparison
What does this show?
How revenue, earnings and free cash flow have grown over the years. Bars rising left-to-right show a growing business; the dashed line is a market-average pace for comparison.
Learn more on Investopedia →Revenue & expenses
FY 2026What does this show?
How a company turns sales into profit. Revenue splits into the direct cost of sales and the gross profit left over; from that gross profit come operating costs (R&D, SG&A), tax and interest — what survives is net income. Every figure is also shown as a share of revenue, so you can compare periods and companies of different sizes.
Learn more on Investopedia →Future
trend, not analyst forecastRevenue · extended at 13.8%/yr
Earnings · extended at 15.0%/yr
Dashed bars just extend the historical trend (capped at ±15%/yr) — the same growth our DCF uses. It's arithmetic on the past, not an analyst forecast; real futures bend.
What does this show?
Solid bars are history; dashed bars simply extend the past growth trend a few years forward — capped so it stays sane. It's a trend line, not an analyst forecast.
Learn more on Investopedia →Dividend
from cash actually paid, not promisesTotal dividends paid · split-proof, unlike per-share history
What does this show?
The share of profit paid back to shareholders as cash. Yield is that cash as a % of the price; the payout gauge shows how much of earnings is paid out (over ~75% can be hard to sustain).
Learn more on Investopedia →Ownership & insiders
from SEC Form 4 filings0 open-market buys · 2 sales in the last 6 saved filings
- Tax-withhold Coleman Amy · EVP, Chief Human Resources Off 89 sh · $44,112 2026-08-17
- Sell Althoff Judson · CEO Microsoft Commercial 10,000 sh · $4.88M 2026-08-05
- Sell Numoto Takeshi · EVP, Chief Marketing Officer 4,810 sh · $2.39M 2026-08-04
- Tax-withhold Coleman Amy · EVP, Chief Human Resources Off 32 sh · $12,450 2026-07-15
- Award Jolla Alice L. · Chief Accounting Officer 5,004 sh 2026-06-15
- Tax-withhold Coleman Amy · EVP, Chief Human Resources Off 36 sh · $14,045 2026-06-15
Insiders must report within two business days. Sales are often pre-planned (10b5-1) rather than a signal — buys tend to say more.
What does this show?
Buys and sells by the company's own directors and officers, from their SEC filings. Insiders sell for many reasons, but clusters of open-market buying can signal confidence.
Learn more on Investopedia →Spot a missing competitor? Sign in to add it — it'll show for everyone.
What does this show?
A few peers in the same business, each with its own mini snowflake, so you can see how this company stacks up rather than judging it in isolation. Anyone signed in can add a missing competitor — it shows for everyone, marked as user-added.
Learn more on Investopedia →Leadership
Yahoo Finance · photos & bios via Wikidata-
Mr. Satya Nadella
Chairman & CEO
Indian-American business executive and CEO of Microsoft
- Age
- 58
- Total yearly comp
- $12.25M
- Education
- Manipal Institute of Technology, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Booth School of Business, Mangalore University
-
Mr. Bradford L. Smith LCA
President & Vice Chairman
- Age
- 66
- Total yearly comp
- $4.53M
-
Mr. Judson B. Althoff
Executive VP & CEO of Commercial Business
- Age
- 52
- Total yearly comp
- $4.49M
-
Ms. Amy E. Hood
Executive VP & CFO
American businessperson and board member; EVP and CFO at Microsoft; director at 3M
- Age
- 53
- Total yearly comp
- $4.44M
- Education
- Harvard Business School, Duke University
-
Mr. Takeshi Numoto
Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer
- Age
- 54
- Total yearly comp
- $2.87M
-
Ranked by title — reporting lines aren't public data. Compensation is the total Yahoo reports; blank means it isn't disclosed there.
In the news
- Jim Cramer Was Left Impressed By Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)’s Conference Call
- Has Wall Street Entered the "Show Me" Phase of AI?
- Nvidia customers face over 15% server price hikes as memory costs soar - report
- Nvidia customers notified about AI-related price hikes above 15%, Bloomberg News reports
- I've Held Microsoft for 10 Years. Here's Why I'm Not Selling a Single Share.
- Microsoft Has Something Nvidia Doesn’t and Here’s Why it Matters
- AI’s Absurd Spending Boom? Hyperscalers Are Spending 102% of Cloud Revenue on Capex
- Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft Are Hiding $3 Trillion in Debt On the AI Boom’s Hidden Ledger
My notes
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