InvestRight

The Trade Desk, Inc.

TTD NasdaqGM

The Trade Desk looks about 159% cheap — and the value checks agree.

$19.07 -0.16% today as of 8 Jul, 11:23 PM

The snowflake

checks passed on each axis
Value 100% Future 100% Past 50% Health 100% Dividend n/a
  • Value 2/2 checks
  • Future 4/4 checks
  • Past 2/4 checks
  • Health 4/4 checks
  • Dividend 0/— checks
What does this show?

Five quick health scores — Value, Future, Past, Health and Dividend — each 0–100%. A bigger, more even shape means a stock that scores well across the board; a spiky one is strong on some axes and weak on others.

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Fair value

our estimate · not analyst forecast

159% below our estimate — you'd be paying less than our numbers say it's worth.

$19.07 price today $49.39 fair value
How we got there

A 2-stage discounted-cash-flow on free cash flow: grow it at the capped historical trend for five years, fade to a 2.5% long-run rate, discount everything at 9.0%. It's a transparent estimate from past numbers, not a licensed forecast — treat it as one lens, not truth.

What does this show?

Our estimate of what one share is worth based on the cash the business is expected to generate (a discounted-cash-flow model), next to today's price. Below fair value hints undervalued, above hints expensive — it's an estimate, not a guarantee.

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Health checks

14 checks run on free data
Show all 14 checks by axis

Value 2/2 passed

  • ✓ Trading below our fair-value estimate +159% vs our DCF estimate
  • – P/B below industry industry P/B not on the free feed
  • – P/E below industry industry P/E not on the free feed
  • – P/E below peer average peer P/Es land after the next refresh
  • – P/S sane vs its own history needs multi-year P/S (Tier B)
  • ✓ More than 20% below fair value +159% margin of safety

Future 4/4 passed

  • ✓ Earnings trending up 40.7%/yr over 9yr
  • – Growth beats the industry industry growth not on the free feed
  • ✓ Earnings growth beats the market 40.7%/yr vs market ~9.0%
  • ✓ Revenue trending up 34.4%/yr over 9yr
  • ✓ Return on equity improving ROE 17.8% vs 12.5% 9yr ago

Past 2/4 passed

  • ✓ Earnings grew over the period 20.5M → 443.3M
  • – High-quality earnings (few one-offs) one-off detection deferred — needs statement detail
  • ⚠ Growth accelerating vs its average latest 12.8%/yr vs 40.7% average
  • ✓ Revenue higher than five years ago 202.9M → 2.9B
  • ⚠ Return on equity above 20% ROE 16.7%

Health 4/4 passed

  • – Debt/equity falling over time n/a
  • ✓ Debt is under 40% of equity debt/equity 17%
  • – Debt well covered by cash flow
  • ✓ Interest comfortably covered by profit EBIT covers interest 329.2×
  • ✓ Short-term assets cover long-term debt 5.3B vs 402.8M
  • ✓ Short-term assets cover short-term bills 5.3B vs 3.3B

Dividend 0/— passed

  • – Dividend covered by earnings and cash flow pays no dividend
  • – Dividend growing over time pays no dividend
  • – No dividend cut in recent years pays no dividend
  • – Payout ratio under 75% pays no dividend
  • – Yield beats the market pays no dividend
  • – Yield in the top quartile of payers pays no dividend
What does this show?

Pass/fail rules on the company's finances — debt levels, profitability, cash cover and so on. More greens means a sturdier balance sheet; an n/a just means we didn't have that data point.

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Past performance

10-yr history from SEC EDGAR filings

Revenue

2016 · 202.9M 2025 · 2.9B

Earnings

2016 · 20.5M 2025 · 443.3M

Free cash flow

2016 · 68.1M 2025 · 795.7M

dashed line = what it'd look like growing at our ~9% market-average benchmark, for comparison

What does this show?

How revenue, earnings and free cash flow have grown over the years. Bars rising left-to-right show a growing business; the dashed line is a market-average pace for comparison.

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Future

trend, not analyst forecast

Revenue · extended at 15.0%/yr

2016 · 202.9M 2028 · 4.4B projected

Earnings · extended at 15.0%/yr

2016 · 20.5M 2028 · 674.2M projected

Dashed bars just extend the historical trend (capped at ±15%/yr) — the same growth our DCF uses. It's arithmetic on the past, not an analyst forecast; real futures bend.

What does this show?

Solid bars are history; dashed bars simply extend the past growth trend a few years forward — capped so it stays sane. It's a trend line, not an analyst forecast.

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Dividend

from cash actually paid, not promises

The doesn't pay a dividend — Otto leaves this axis blank rather than guessing.

What does this show?

The share of profit paid back to shareholders as cash. Yield is that cash as a % of the price; the payout gauge shows how much of earnings is paid out (over ~75% can be hard to sustain).

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Ownership & insiders

from SEC Form 4 filings

0 open-market buys · 1 sale in the last 10 saved filings

Insiders must report within two business days. Sales are often pre-planned (10b5-1) rather than a signal — buys tend to say more.

What does this show?

Buys and sells by the company's own directors and officers, from their SEC filings. Insiders sell for many reasons, but clusters of open-market buying can signal confidence.

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Competitors

hand-picked peers · tap to jump

Otto hasn't hand-picked peers for TTD yet — the peer map is curated by hand, since there's no good free "similar companies" feed.

What does this show?

A few peers in the same business, each with its own mini snowflake, so you can see how this company stacks up rather than judging it in isolation.

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In the news

My notes