ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation
XOM NYSEExxonMobil Holdings Corporation looks roughly fairly valued against its cash flows. Its growth outlook scores strong; the balance sheet is solid.
At a glance
tap a tile to dig inOtto's verdict
the tiles above, in a line each- Value Trading roughly in line with Otto's cash-flow estimate.
- Health 16 of 21 health checks pass.
- Growth Revenue trend ≈ +6%/yr (extended trend, not a forecast).
- Street Analysts lean buy · avg target +8% from here.
- Dividend Pays a dividend — yields 2.66%.
- Insiders Insiders, last 12 months: 0 buys · 5 sells.
Not investment advice — Otto just crunches numbers.
Price trend
+5.9% over the last month · S&P 500 +3.5%
What think
The market's move: +5.9% over the past year
Trading 70% up its 52-week range. Price is the market's live vote — not advice.
Analyst consensus: Buy · 22 analysts
Average 12-month target $167.09 — +7.8% vs today.
Yahoo Finance's analyst aggregate. Sentiment, not advice.
Insiders: 0 buys · 5 sales in recent filings
Open-market trades from SEC Form 4. Sales are often pre-planned (10b5-1); buys tend to say more. Sentiment, not advice.
InvestRight readers: 0 watching
This site's own activity — not a broad measure. Sentiment, not advice.
The snowflake
checks passed on each axis- Value 1/2 checks
- Future 4/4 checks
- Past 2/4 checks
- Health 4/5 checks
- Dividend 5/6 checks
What does this show?
Five quick health scores — Value, Future, Past, Health and Dividend — each 0–100%. A bigger, more even shape means a stock that scores well across the board; a spiky one is strong on some axes and weak on others.
Learn more on Investopedia →Fair value
our estimate · not analyst forecast10% below our estimate — you'd be paying less than our numbers say it's worth.
How we got there
A 2-stage discounted-cash-flow on free cash flow: grow it at the capped historical trend for five years, fade to a 2.5% long-run rate, discount everything at 9.0%. It's a transparent estimate from past numbers, not a licensed forecast — treat it as one lens, not truth.
What does this show?
Our estimate of what one share is worth based on the cash the business is expected to generate (a discounted-cash-flow model), next to today's price. Below fair value hints undervalued, above hints expensive — it's an estimate, not a guarantee.
Learn more on Investopedia →Health checks
21 checks run on free data- ⚠ Growth accelerating vs its average latest -14.4%/yr vs 15.6% average
- ⚠ Return on equity above 20% ROE 9.9%
- ⚠ More than 20% below fair value +10% margin of safety
- ⚠ Short-term assets cover long-term debt 83.4B vs 110.0B
- ⚠ Yield in the top quartile of payers yield 2.99% vs 4.97% cut among the 15 payers Otto tracks
- ✓ Trading below our fair-value estimate +10% vs our DCF estimate
Show all 21 checks by axis
Value 1/2 passed
- ✓ Trading below our fair-value estimate +10% vs our DCF estimate
- – P/B below industry industry P/B not on the free feed
- – P/E below industry industry P/E not on the free feed
- – P/E below peer average peer P/Es land after the next refresh
- – P/S sane vs its own history needs multi-year P/S (Tier B)
- ⚠ More than 20% below fair value +10% margin of safety
Future 4/4 passed
- ✓ Earnings trending up 15.6%/yr over 9yr
- – Growth beats the industry industry growth not on the free feed
- ✓ Earnings growth beats the market 15.6%/yr vs market ~9.0%
- ✓ Revenue trending up 5.8%/yr over 9yr
- ✓ Return on equity improving ROE 11.1% vs 4.7% 9yr ago
Past 2/4 passed
- ✓ Earnings grew over the period 7.8B → 28.8B
- – High-quality earnings (few one-offs) one-off detection deferred — needs statement detail
- ⚠ Growth accelerating vs its average latest -14.4%/yr vs 15.6% average
- ✓ Revenue higher than five years ago 200.6B → 332.2B
- ⚠ Return on equity above 20% ROE 9.9%
Health 4/5 passed
- ✓ Debt/equity falling over time long-term debt/equity 12.3% vs 16.6%
- ✓ Debt is under 40% of equity debt/equity 18%
- ✓ Debt well covered by cash flow operating cash flow covers 559.0% of debt
- – Interest comfortably covered by profit
- ⚠ Short-term assets cover long-term debt 83.4B vs 110.0B
- ✓ Short-term assets cover short-term bills 83.4B vs 72.3B
Dividend 5/6 passed
- ✓ Dividend covered by earnings and cash flow covered by both earnings and free cash flow
- ✓ Dividend growing over time over 10yr on record
- ✓ No dividend cut in recent years steady over 10yr on record
- ✓ Payout ratio under 75% payout 68.0% of earnings
- ✓ Yield beats the market yield 2.99% vs market ~1.5%
- ⚠ Yield in the top quartile of payers yield 2.99% vs 4.97% cut among the 15 payers Otto tracks
What does this show?
Pass/fail rules on the company's finances — debt levels, profitability, cash cover and so on. More greens means a sturdier balance sheet; an n/a just means we didn't have that data point.
Learn more on Investopedia →Past performance
10-yr history from SEC EDGAR filingsRevenue
Earnings
Free cash flow
dashed line = what it'd look like growing at our ~9% market-average benchmark, for comparison
What does this show?
How revenue, earnings and free cash flow have grown over the years. Bars rising left-to-right show a growing business; the dashed line is a market-average pace for comparison.
Learn more on Investopedia →Future
trend, not analyst forecastRevenue · extended at 5.8%/yr
Earnings · extended at 15.0%/yr
Dashed bars just extend the historical trend (capped at ±15%/yr) — the same growth our DCF uses. It's arithmetic on the past, not an analyst forecast; real futures bend.
What does this show?
Solid bars are history; dashed bars simply extend the past growth trend a few years forward — capped so it stays sane. It's a trend line, not an analyst forecast.
Learn more on Investopedia →Dividend
from cash actually paid, not promisesTotal dividends paid · split-proof, unlike per-share history
What does this show?
The share of profit paid back to shareholders as cash. Yield is that cash as a % of the price; the payout gauge shows how much of earnings is paid out (over ~75% can be hard to sustain).
Learn more on Investopedia →Ownership & insiders
from SEC Form 4 filings0 open-market buys · 5 sales in the last 8 saved filings
- Sell Exxon Mobil Corp · 10% owner 16,600,000 sh · $276.56M 2026-05-20
- Sell Talley Darrin L · VP - Corp Strategic Planning 1,080 sh · $167,935 2026-03-16
- Sell Talley Darrin L · VP - Corp Strategic Planning 2,150 sh · $339,313 2026-03-02
- Sell Talley Darrin L · VP - Corp Strategic Planning 3,230 sh · $481,835 2026-02-09
- Sell Talley Darrin L · VP - Corp Strategic Planning 5,000 sh · $698,753 2026-02-02
- Award Angelakis Michael J · Director 2,500 sh 2026-01-02
- Award Braly Angela F · Director 2,500 sh 2026-01-02
- Award Dreyfus Maria S. · Director 2,500 sh 2026-01-02
Insiders must report within two business days. Sales are often pre-planned (10b5-1) rather than a signal — buys tend to say more.
What does this show?
Buys and sells by the company's own directors and officers, from their SEC filings. Insiders sell for many reasons, but clusters of open-market buying can signal confidence.
Learn more on Investopedia →Spot a missing competitor? Sign in to add it — it'll show for everyone.
What does this show?
A few peers in the same business, each with its own mini snowflake, so you can see how this company stacks up rather than judging it in isolation. Anyone signed in can add a missing competitor — it shows for everyone, marked as user-added.
Learn more on Investopedia →In the news
- ‘Staggering’: Goldman Sachs Says China’s Oil Demand May Never Fully Recover
- ExxonMobil (XOM) Stock Looks Reasonable On Earnings But Stretched After 180% Run
- The Real Risk Inside ExxonMobil Stock
- Exxon Mobil Holdings (XOM) Stock Falls Amid Market Uptick: What Investors Need to Know
- CVX Stock Has A New Bull Case — Why Bank Of America Favors Chevron Over Exxon As Hormuz Risks Push Oil Prices Higher
- Exxon Mobil signals massive profit spike but Wall Street is divided
- Strong Commodity Tailwinds Poised to Boost XOM's Q2 Results
- ExxonMobil CFO backs semiannual reporting option: 5 takeaways
My notes
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